This article was originally published by Michael Snyder at The End of the American Dream. 

I have been watching the H5N1 bird flu for a very long time.  Many of my readers don’t even know this, but many years ago I actually had an entire website that was dedicated to tracking the latest news regarding bird flu.

Fortunately, H5N1 hasn’t been a significant threat for ages, but now it is back.  It is spreading very rapidly in birds in North America right now, and some experts are concerned that it could mutate into a version that could begin spreading easily in humans.  If that happens, it would make the COVID pandemic look like a bad joke in comparison, because the death rate for H5N1 in humans is extremely high.

Over the past several days, we have received some really troubling news about the spread of bird flu inside the United States.

For example, bird flu has now been detected in a “non-commercial backyard flock” in Suffolk County, New York.  The following comes from the official USDA website…

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a non-commercial backyard flock (non-poultry) in Suffolk County, New York.

Samples from the flock were tested at the Cornell University Animal Health Diagnostic Center, part of the National Animal Health Laboratory Network, and confirmed at the APHIS National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) in Ames, Iowa.

APHIS is working closely with state animal health officials in New York on a joint incident response. State officials quarantined the affected premises, and birds on the properties will be depopulated to prevent the spread of the disease. Birds from the flock will not enter the food system.

And the USDA is also telling us that bird flu has also popped up in the state of Maine for the first time…

Inspectors with a U.S. Department of Agriculture service have confirmed the presence of the avian influenza in what they describe as a “non-commercial backyard flock (non-poultry)” in Knox County.

Officials with the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) are now working with Maine animal health officials to quarantine the affected property.

In addition, we have just learned that  “a fourth commercial poultry flock in southern Indiana” has been hit…

Avian influenza has been detected in a fourth commercial poultry flock in southern Indiana, state officials said Saturday.

Laboratory testing of a second commercial flock of turkeys in Greene County has come back as presumptively positive for the virus, the Indiana State Board of Animal Health said. The samples are being verified at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Iowa.

Authorities are doing their best to try to prevent this outbreak from spreading, but it is clearly out of control at this point.

So far, bird flu has actually been detected in wild birds in a total of nine different states…

As of Saturday, over 240 wild birds in South and North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Georgia, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Delaware and Florida had been found to be infected with Eurasian H5 HPAI, with a number of cases specified as H5N1.

Poultry farmers are on high alert all over the nation, because a single case can often mean that an entire flock must be put down.

And the more we lose, the higher chicken prices will go.

But of much greater concern is the possibility that the virus could mutate and start spreading among humans…

“An increase in poultry outbreaks inevitably brings the virus into closer and more frequent proximity to humans, which is always a risk with viruses like influenza that can rapidly evolve,” Dr. Holly Shelton, head of the Influenza Viruses Group at The Pirbright Institute, told The Telegraph.

If H5N1 were to start spreading as widely as COVID has among humans, the death toll would be absolutely catastrophic.

Since 2003, more than half of all human cases of H5N1 have died…

Some 864 human infections and 456 deaths with the H5N1 subtype have been reported in 19 countries since 2003.

Over the past couple of years, there has just been one crisis after another, and we truly are in the midst of a “perfect storm”.

But a bird flu pandemic would definitely take things to an entirely new level.

So let us hope that this current outbreak can be brought under control, and let us hope that H5N1 doesn’t start spreading among humans any time soon.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written five other books that are available on Amazon.com including  “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, “Get Prepared Now”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. (#CommissionsEarned)  When you purchase any of these books you help to support the work that I am doing, and one way that you can really help is by sending digital copies as gifts through Amazon to family and friends.  Time is short, and I need help getting these warnings into the hands of as many people as possible.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial, or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and anyway that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, I strongly urge you to ask Jesus to be your Lord and Savior today.

The post As H5N1 Bird Flu Spreads To More States, Many Are Wondering What Will Happen If People Start Getting Infected… first appeared on SHTF Plan – When It Hits The Fan, Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You.

Studying history can prove to be a great source of knowledge for the modern man seeking to improve his bushcraft…

This article %How to Make a Leather Sling (and how to use it)% appeared first on %SHTF Blog – Modern Survival%.

If you are a prepper or survivalist, keeping binoculars with you is a must. Read the article to understand more about binoculars and use them more frequently. When preparing for any survival situation, binoculars might not be often found on your equipment list. However, you need to seriously consider keeping one around as they are […]

If you are a prepper or survivalist, keeping binoculars with you is a must. Read the article to understand more about binoculars and use them more frequently. When preparing for any survival situation, binoculars might not be often found on your equipment list. However, you need to seriously consider keeping one around as they are […]

If you are a prepper or survivalist, keeping binoculars with you is a must. Read the article to understand more about binoculars and use them more frequently. When preparing for any survival situation, binoculars might not be often found on your equipment list. However, you need to seriously consider keeping one around as they are […]

Today I’m going to talk about the modern day food supply chain and why it’s way more fragile than you think….

Watch the video below OR skip past to read the transcript:

You see, I grew up on a farm in Iowa. So, I was a part of the modern day supply chain for 18 years of my life. Then after college, I worked 10 years as an Engineer at a major food manufacturer.

So for 28 years I’ve seen how distribution food worked, first from farm to factory and then from factory to grocer.

And if this distribution system were to become compromised for an extended period, well, our society will suffer. You’ll suffer. We’ll all suffer.

Why? Because we ALL need to consume lots of food on a regular basis to survive. And very few of us grow enough food on our own to survive long.

Sure, you might have a backyard garden, but that’s not going to last long if the food supply chain stops. And even if you have a large food stockpile, most folks will burn through that in a few weeks or months.

So, let’s get into what makes food supply chains so susceptible to disruption.

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Supply Chain Inventories (Durable Goods vs Food)

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First lets me ask a question:

What happens when you combine “limited inventories” with “bottlenecks issues” in a supply chain? Well, if those issues (inventories and bottlenecks) get a bit out of whack (but not disastrous), you end up with inflation and some shortages.

No matter the product, if demand outstrips the ability to supply, well, “goods” must go up in price. IF you can even get the goods at all…

For example, right now, the demand for the latest video game console – the PS5 – is in very high. And due to very limited supply of silicone – a necessary ingredient to build chips and processors for this tech, you end up either:

• Paying through the nose on secondary markets.
• Or you must hit up targets and Walmart’s daily to try to snag one before they are gone in minutes.
• Or you go without

But what IF we we’re not talking about a video game console and instead we’re talking about something you can’t delay purchase of (at least for long). I’m talking about FOOD.

Humans can’t put off buying food for very long.

For example, without any stockpiles, you can make it month, perhaps 60 days, before your die.

But things will get desperate WAY before that. I’m talking days – or even as little as 72 hours before widespread panic ensues.

So a steady demand of foods is necessary for modern society. We ALL must go to the grocery store at some regular frequency. It’s not an option. You can’t just not eat for 6 months.

You eat or you die – its simple math.

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Why Can’t Grocery Stores Just Increase Their Inventories?

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Now. one way to combat this reality (this built-in constant demand for food) is for grocery stores to stockpile more of it. It’s called slack. Larger grocery store inventories help absorb disruptions.

So why don’t grocery stores do this? Well, there are two problems with this approach; expiration dates and margins.

1. Food Expiration Dates

First, food is not a like phones or computers. Food spoils. That’s one reason why grocery stores can only hold so much “extra” food.

And the best, high quality, fresh foods spoil the fastest.

Honestly, if a food doesn’t spoil, it’s usually void of the best nutrients and stuffed full of preservatives.

The one big exception to that rule is Freeze Dried Foods. These meals can be fairly nutritious and are shelf stable for decades. But grocery stores don’t tend to sell those. Specialty survival food vendors focus on those, because it’s expensive to freeze dry foods, and fresh food tastes better.

So, they tend to leave freeze dried meals for folks who are into preparedness. Not for the masses.

Sure, grocery stores sell rice and pasta. These are dried grains you can buy and stockpile. But those are just simple carbs – easy calories.

They’re void of essential vitamins and proteins your body needs over the long haul. While freeze dried meals, tend to have those veggies and nutrients in their meals.

But the bottom line is because most food expires; grocery stores cannot keep large inventories “just in case”. If they did, they’d risk much of it becoming waste during normal operations.

Spoilage is bad for business.

So grocery stores are forced to keep their extra inventories as low as they can. That’s why grocery stores require CONSTANT food delivery’s.

Every day, trucks full of food come to the back of grocery stores to unload.

2. Margins

The other problem with a grocery store trying to increasing their onsite inventories is it goes against capitalisms “just-in-time” high efficiency, maximum profits, business approach.

You see, carrying extra inventories, is expensive – especially for large grocery store chains. Even a little bit of extra cheese, milk, meat, or bread quickly becomes extra “working capital” that must be used to create these “extra” inventories.

Working capital is money that is necessary to run everyday business operations. And at large scales this can cost multiple millions of dollars. Dollars that cannot be used for other things like expansion projects, marketing, or paying out dividends.

So any grocery store that carries any “extra” inventory – may have to raise its prices on the food to make up for the inefficiencies. BUT higher prices tends to be a big loser in the mind of the consumer.

Price consciences shoppers will not pay much more at Store X if they can get it for a lot cheaper at Store Y.

And if consumers go to another store, that means the “extra” inventories Store X has in place, will move (or rotate) slower. And as we discussed in the first point, quality food has a relatively short expiration date.

So having food sit in storage for a few extra days, means more items that never get sold and become more waste (literal waste and financial waste).

As A Way To Introduce You To Skilled Survival, We’re Giving Away Our #78 Item Complete Prepper Checklist. Click Here To Get Your FREE Copy Of It.

Grocery Stores Are More Fragile Than You Think

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So, the grocery store supply chain CAN’T stockpile extra food for surprise runs on their inventories. IF demand spikes overnight, they cannot move fast enough to make up the difference.

For these two reasons, grocery stores are FRAGILE.

Yet, society acts as if they will always be fully stocked because, day in and day out over our lifetimes, that’s what HAS been our collective experience.

But what IF supply dried up for longer than a few days? What if, grocery store shelves were limited for weeks?

Well, then grocery stores will get squeezed from both ends at the same time supply and demand. Why? Because empty shelves create panic. So demand will spike BECAUSE of supply constraints.

Events That Could Cause A Massive Supply Side Food Disruption

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There are two main potential bottlenecks that could crush the supply chain.

Production and delivery.

1. Production

If farms where not able to produce the same yields due to draughts or topsoil erosion, then less food would be available – and prices would rise. This would likely be a slow crisis.

Not many disasters could stop ALL food production at once – unless an asteroid hit or we saw a nuclear winter. Possible? yes. Likely? Who knows…?

But the other bottleneck is delivery of these goods. I’m talking about trucks and truckers.

How could the delivery system fail?

• How about a massive EMP that fries the onboard computer systems of most trains and trucks in an instant?
• Or perhaps a super massive volcanic explosion where ash would get into many trucks air intakes and ruin the engines?
• Or perhaps, nuclear war would force so many truckers to hunker down to avoid driving through areas contaminated with nuclear fallout?

And while each of those is possible, they seem to me to be on the long tail, rare event side of things.

2. Distribution

But there’s one more event that is much more likely, yet could be just as dangerous? Heck, it’s one we’re starting to see play out now, today, before our very eyes…

What if a mass of TRUCKERS on strike?

If truckers were to strike IN MASS, they could bring our food supply to its knees. If raw grains, meats, chesses, can’t get from farm to factory or from farm to grocer. Well, it wouldn’t take long for real food scarcity to hit.

And once food scarcity became a real narrative, folks would run out and stock up FAST. And boom, the grocery store shelves are empty and not getting refilled anytime soon.

Once that happens, society is only 72 hours from some real pain and panic. Perhaps even a “collapse”.

If you want to see true societal panic and chaos? Starve a majority of citizens for a week or so…

That’ll get everyone’s attention, right?

Now guess who’s currently on strike in Canada? Truckers.

Is this disruption enough to cause problems with Canadian supply chains? I think so. Is it enough to cause starvation level supply chain issues – probably not….at least not yet.

But is it a harbinger of things to come? Could poor relations between Governments and truckers cause more strikes, more walkouts, and more disruptions? You bet.

This thought experiment should highlight just how critical truckers are to a well-functioning modern survival.

Sure, you can say, “if they strike, someone else will just find a truck and drive it…” Oh yeah, we’re already low on quality truckers with skills AND trucks to get the job done.

So, if the industry where to protest and it was a large enough and long enough? Things could go south real FAST!

Supporting Truckers

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Now, I support truckers.

They are the folks who kept working throughout the pandemic. They kept hauling and delivering so that most folks could stay at home and hunker down – uncertain how bad things “might” get.

I also have some family members who are in the trucking industry and I think society should be treating them better. With respect. They deserve to be heard.

They are one of our underappreciated heroes of our modern society.

And I can’t stand anyone who is elitist towards hard working folks like truckers, farms, teachers, etc. Without these folks our societies would collapse. We should be treating them more respect and dignity.

That means, when they have a concern, they shouldn’t be demonized, they shouldn’t be ignored. They should be heard and allowed to speak. To voice their concerns – not muzzled.

You Should Start Living A Resilient Life

Now to wrap this up. I like to focus on things YOU can do. The actions you can take, activities you control. That’s why you should stockpile lots of food and learn how to live a more resilient life.

Because MOST folks live a fragile life. And they have no idea just how fragile our supply chain system are. That’s because we’ve become extremely complacent over the years.

For example, during normal times, occasionally, the thing you want may take a bit takes longer the expected to arrive. But for the most part, people ASSUME, grocery store shelves will be well stocked at all times. And physical goods are just a few clicks and 2 day shipping away.

But we all know about how dangerous assumptions can be.  That’s a fragile way to live and you’re putting your life in the hands of others (i.e. supply chains).

Instead, you should work towards improving your own resiliency. To prepare for chaos, to learn survival skills, and increase your own strategic stockpiles of food and supplies.

Action Plan

So today I have to recommendations for you.

Number 1

At the time I published this article, there was a great deal on a 3 pack of quality freeze dried foods from Valley Food Storage (only cost a small shipping fee).

Click here now, to see if this excellent deal is still available.

Now, 3 packs is not nearly enough but it’s Better Than Nothing. But it gives you a way to Test their products before you decide to buy more.

Number 2

The best way I know how to continue become more resilient and less fragile is to join my 30 day prepper challenge.

In this challenge you complete 15 meaningful tasks that will make you more prepared than most your neighbors – all in just 30 day.

And each challenge has both a basic and advanced challenge – so no matter where you are on your preparedness journey, my 30 day challenge is right for you.

Until next time, prepare, adapt, and overcome.

“Just In Case” Jack

P.s. Do you know where the closest nuclear bunker is from your home?

There are a lot of natural nuclear shelters in the US that are absolutely free. And one of them is near your home.

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Click on the image above to find out where you need to take shelter.

The post Like It Or Not We’re ALL At The Mercy Of Food Supply Chains appeared first on Skilled Survival.

When supply chains become broken, those that rely on crucial medications could be in big trouble. Stockpiling vital medications should be an integral part of preparing your home for a disaster. You may have enough of your prescription medications to last you for a month in most cases. But what happens after that if you […]

Shooting Skills Matter Too! Deer shot placement is a question newer hunters are taught by fathers, grandfathers, and even hunter…

This article %Deer Shot Placement – Where to Aim Photos% appeared first on %SHTF Blog – Modern Survival%.

I warned you that inflation was going to get worse.  On Thursday, we learned that the consumer price index was 7.5 percent higher in January than it was a year ago.  We are being told that this was the highest reading since February 1982, and that sounds really bad.  But it isn’t exactly honest, because the truth is that the way the inflation rate is calculated has been changed more than two dozen times since 1980.  So if we are going to compare the rate of inflation today to historical numbers, we should actually be doing an apples to apples comparison.

Fortunately, there is someone out there that takes care of the math for us.  According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1990, the official rate of inflation would be above 10 percent right now.  And if inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be above 15 percent right now.

In other words, using the same methodology that the government used in 1980 would give us an official rate of inflation that is more than double the official number that we have just been given.

Wow.

Many have compared the current crisis to the Jimmy Carter era, but the truth is that we are now surpassing anything that we witnessed back then.

On her Twitter account, Washington Post columnist Heather Long shared some specific numbers from the inflation report which show where American consumers are being hit the hardest…

Used cars 40.5% y/y
Gas 40%
Rental cars 29%
Utility gas 24%
Hotels 21%
Furniture 20%
Bacon 18%
Steak 17%
Peanut Butter 15.5%
Pork 14.5%
Fish 13%
Eggs 13%
New cars 12%
Electric 11%
Chicken 10%
Oranges 10%

I am particularly concerned about the rise in energy prices.

According to the Labor Department, energy prices overall are up a whopping 27 percent over the past year…

The Labor Department reported that gasoline prices have skyrocketed 40% over the past year, while natural gas has surged 22.6% and electricity is up 10.7%. A gallon of gas, on average, cost $3.47 nationwide Thursday, according to AAA, up from $2.47 a year ago. In California, gas prices are well over $4 per gallon.

In all, energy prices have climbed more than 27% over the course of the past 12 months.

A lot of people expect that this new energy crisis will just be “temporary” just like the energy crisis of the 1970s was.

But this time is very different.

As I have discussed previously, easily accessible energy reserves are steadily being depleted, and that means that we are going to become increasingly dependent on energy reserves that are more costly to extract.

In addition, major financial institutions have become extremely hesitant to fund projects that have anything to do with traditional forms of energy.  They don’t want to be seen as “contributing to global warming”, and so they are focusing on funding alternative energy projects instead.

But alternative energy sources are not producing enough to keep up with global demand.

So we are now facing a major crunch, and it isn’t going to go away.

In fact, it is only going to get worse.

On Thursday, Joe Biden promised to “work like the devil to bring gas prices down”.

Really?

Exactly how does he plan to do that?

He already ordered a very large release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve back in November, and that didn’t work.

And that was actually a very stupid thing to do, because we are going to need those reserves someday.

The cost of food continues to rise very aggressively as well.  According to CNBC, one way that Americans can cope with this is by eating less meat and less dairy…

Meat and dairy tend to be the more expensive items at the supermarket, and especially of late. In response, aim to make more meals that don’t rely on them as the central ingredient, Brown said.

“Using meat sparingly as flavor, like adding a bit of bacon to a mushroom risotto, is more economical,” she said. Consuming less meat also helps you to lower your environmental footprint, she added.

The elite really don’t want us to eat much meat anyway, and so this would work out very well for them.

Of course Biden realizes that ordinary Americans are becoming increasingly frustrated, but he is assuring us that “we will make it through this challenge”…

“On higher prices, we have been using every tool at our disposal, and while today is a reminder that Americans’ budgets are being stretched in ways that create real stress at the kitchen table, there are also signs that we will make it through this challenge,” Biden said in a statement responding to the report.

Unfortunately for Biden, the American people are increasingly losing faith in his leadership.

In fact, CNN just reported on some new approval numbers that are absolutely dismal…

“Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of how Joe Biden is handling his presidency, with most of that group saying there’s literally nothing Biden has done since taking office that they approve of,” CNN detailed.

The latest survey, taken January 10-February 6, 2022, shows 58 percent disapproving of Biden’s job performance, compared to 41 percent who approve. That reflects a seven-point increase in the number who disapproved from the last survey, taken in December 2021.

So where do we go from here?

Well, many are expecting that the Federal Reserve will soon be substantially raising interest rates…

The chances of a 0.5 percentage point Fed rate increase in March rose to 44.3% following the data release, compared with 25% just before, according to CME data. Chances of a sixth quarter-percentage point hike this year rose to about 63%, compared with about 53% before the release.

“With another surprise jump in inflation in January, markets continue to be concerned about an aggressive Fed,” said Barry Gilbert, asset allocation strategist at LPL Financial. “While things may start getting better from here, market anxiety about potential Fed overtightening won’t go away until there are clear signs inflation is coming under control.”

When I saw the term “overtightening”, I just had to chuckle.

The Fed has had interest rates pushed to the floor for more than a decade, and someone actually has the gall to suggest that the Fed could soon be engaged in “overtightening”?

When the Fed pushed interest rates into the stratosphere in the early 1980s, that was overtightening.

Any rate hikes that we see in 2022 will be extremely modest by comparison.

But without a doubt, any rate hikes at all will be painful for the financial markets.  Low interest rates helped to fuel the absurd bubble that we are in right now, and many investors could interpret higher rates as a sign that the party is finally about to come to an end.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book I have written five other books that are available on Amazon.com including  “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, “Get Prepared Now”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. (#CommissionsEarned)  When you purchase any of these books you help to support the work that I am doing, and one way that you can really help is by sending digital copies as gifts through Amazon to family and friends.  Time is short, and I need help getting these warnings into the hands of as many people as possible.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, I strongly urge you to ask Jesus to be your Lord and Savior today.

The post Is The Real Rate Of Inflation More Than Twice As High As The Number We Were Just Given? appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Since the introduction of the first Glock 17 to the civilian market, these pistols have become enormously popular. Glock’s reputation for quality, durability, and reliability is almost unmatched. These may not be the prettiest guns in the world, but Glocks are certainly workhorses for many shooters. Many first-time Glock shooters are mystified by the Glock…

The post How to Adjust Glock Sights: Expert’s Guide appeared first on Survival Cache.